Recent silver linings have come accompanied by simple math for local health officials.
Hospitalizations have leveled, meetings for vaccine distribution in the Four Corners Health District have been scheduled and more tests administered have lowered documented transition rates – all encouraging signs. However, hospital beds used by COVID-19 inpatients are anticipated to rise again before a drop of equal amount. Simply put – it's going to get worse.
“As we study hospital capacity, we think we'll have new records as we get closer to Christmas,” Memorial Health Care Systems CEO Roger Reamer said. “That's a math thing.”
Reamer broke down those numbers during the Nov. 25 Four Corners briefing.
Health officials anticipate 4% of COVID-positive cases need some level of hospitalization. So if a county reports 200 new cases in a week, that's eight people from that county who require hospitalized treatment. Four Corners Executive Director Laura McDougall said the district averaged 421 new cases per week throughout November.
McDougall said the state registered an all-time high of 987 people were hospitalized with COVID-19. Fifty residents in the Four Corners district were hospitalized in November, she said.
Of the district's 27 COVID-related deaths, she said, nine came in November, as of the briefing. McDougall also said health officials were waiting on death certificates for a list of people who died with coronavirus. A death certificate would confirm if COVID-19 was a contributing factor.
In other numbers, Reamers pointed to emergency room identifications. He said roughly 48% of those who test positive for coronavirus through the emergency room are discharged home. Roughly 18% stay at MHCS for treatment while 33% are transferred to another hospital.
Reamer said MHCS is equipped and prepared to handle infectious disease, as it installed a new infectious disease plan in the spring. Thomas Barnett of Four Corners Health Department said personal protective equipment throughout the district is steady but that could change abruptly, so he urged reduced use when able.
McDougall, when asked about re-infection, said there was one case in the district to which it could apply. From Four Corners data, one person showed COVID symptoms after being exposed to two different events more than three months apart. The health district cannot confirm that as a re-infection since that would require more intensive information and testing administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Reamer said there's hope for an outpatient infusion for qualifying high-risk people. That would be an hour-long infusion with another hour of monitoring. That's an encouraging sign, he said, to help hospitals limit emergency room visits.
Local health officials and hospitals are scheduled to meet in early December about storage and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine throughout the district. MHCS is signed up to receive vaccines. Reamer said he's anticipating they'll be close to a Phase 1-B of the vaccine available in the district by Christmas.
“That starts the plan for getting the community vaccinated,” he said.
